2014 Asia Risk Assessment

SVA wishes you happiness, health and success in the Year of the Horse!

SVA has released our 2014 Asia Risk Assessment, which we hope you will find of interest. If you would like to receive a copy, please email us at [email protected] or call us on (+852) 2528-1270.

This report outlines risks of particular concern to foreign investors and business leaders. The report has individual chapters on Thailand, Hong Kong, Myanmar, Mongolia, Indonesia, North Korea, Japan and China. Some key conclusions in the report include:

  • In Thailand political strife will intensify in 2014, as few good options to reduce tensions exist and major questions about the country’s future underpin the disorder.
  • Hong Kong’s government will face a challenge from the Occupy Central movement, with a possible mismanaged response liable to politicise Hong Kong intensely and cause further uncertainty.
  • The dispute between Japan and China in the East China Sea will remain problematic, adding to frictions and presenting a modest risk of accidental conflict.
  • The execution of Jang Song-thaek (the uncle of Kim Jong-Un) in North Korea in December 2013 may provoke shifts back to the military first policy, leading to new provocations by Pyongyang.
  • Upcoming elections should transform the political landscape in Indonesia, but add to uncertainties about policy direction at the same time as economic risks worsen.
  • The completion of the electoral cycle in Mongolia means political risk should stabilise, but the government will have to strive to win back investor confidence.
  • Myanmar’s government may struggle to maintain reforms, without provoking a backlash from military-linked interests. Extremism is also worsening.
  • Macau should see its gaming continue to thrive, facing low levels of political or regulatory risk. However, triad societies continue to strengthen their hold on the junket sector, raising significant criminal and reputational risks.
  • Islamist extremism remains a threat. Two regions where risk is rising are China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region and Thailand’s deep south.

SVA is a specialist risk mitigation, corporate intelligence and risk consulting company. The firm serves financial institutions, private equity funds, corporations, high net-worth individuals and insurance companies and underwriters around the world.

If we can be of assistance to your organisation to mitigate risk or to respond – swiftly and effectively to a crisis, please do not hesitate to contact us.