SVA (www.stevevickersassociates.com) are shortly to release our 2015 Asia Risk Assessment, which we hope you will find of interest. If you would like to receive a complimentary copy, please email us at [email protected]
The report outlines risks of particular concern to foreign investors and business leaders. The report has individual chapters on China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Myanmar and a section on Terrorism. Some key conclusions in the report include:
China: Recent developments have stoked concerns about a rising tide of economic nationalism. Investors should prepare their internal crisis management and compliance mechanisms accordingly.
India: The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi promises changes. However, Modi faces obstacles in implementing reforms, meaning investors should temper hopes for growth rates of over 7% for now.
Indonesia: The coming year will cast light on whether Joko Widodo, the new President of Indonesia, can deliver on his promises of reform. Attention will focus on his desire to build infrastructure, expand healthcare and improve education.
Thailand: The frailty of the King and efforts to impeach former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra highlight the uncertainties facing Thailand. The preparation of a new constitution may become a crucial point of friction.
Taiwan: The waning popularity for the governing Kuomintang’s (“KMT”) policy of rapprochement with mainland China could presage a resurgence in tensions in the Straits in 2015.
Hong Kong: The political fallout of the 79-day occupation of Admiralty, Mong Kok and Causeway Bay will dominate politics in 2015, with adverse effects lingering even longer.
Macau: Macau’s Chief Executive Fernando Chui Sai-on and his new governing team face challenges as the weakening economy and anti-corruption campaign have trimmed gaming revenues.
Myanmar: The transition in Myanmar is slowing, even as the country faces looming challenges in the year ahead to include: constitutional amendments, nationwide elections and ceasefire agreements.
Terrorism: Terrorism will trouble traditional venues such as India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the southern Philippines. Two regions facing a rising risk of terrorism, though, are China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region and the Malay-Indonesian speaking world.
If we can be of assistance to your organisation to mitigate risk or to respond — swiftly and effectively to a crisis, please do not hesitate to contact us.